Each side's goals for and against per game are shrunk toward the league baseline (10 virtual games), turned into attack and defence strength, and multiplied into expected goals. A back-to-back trims a team's expected goals by 4%. A Poisson score grid with a tie boost gives the 60-minute result, and ties go to OT or shootout, split by relative strength. Totals include the OT goal (always in the playoffs, about 62% of OT/SO games in the regular season). Puck line −1.5 only covers on a 2+ goal regulation win. This is a model, not betting advice.